2019 Economic Update - May / Jun 19




Economic Forecast 2019 Update

Attendees of Chapman University’s annual Economic Forecast in December 2018 left with the knowledge that unprecedented history is currently in the making.  At the time, the current economic recovery, which began in June 2009, was 38 quarters old.  Now the recovery is 39 quarters old and counting.

If the current expansion continues through 2019, it will be the longest in U.S. history, noted econometrician and Chapman University President Emeritus Jim Doti, who has presented the yearly findings at each annual Forecast Conference since 1978.  By later this year, the current recovery will surpass the 10-year (40-quarter) expansion that occurred from 1991 to 2001.

Knowing that the recovery has no immediate signs of abating is good news and of interest to many, like Jeremy Davis, a 24-year-old student, who also works in the computer industry and has an interest in economics.

“I find it exciting that if the recovery continues through 2019, it will be the longest expansion in U.S. history,” says Davis, who attended the Forecast in December.  “It’s fascinating to watch how this has come about through a mix of tax cuts and Quantitative Easing (QE) [when the Federal Reserve purchases privately owned assets to mitigate economic risk and help maintain an expansion.]  Prior to 2008, the Federal Reserve had never in history used QE to maintain a recovery, so it’s interesting, yet a little worrying, to see what will happen as a result.”

Besides a general interest in the economy, Davis also enjoyed hearing about the local housing market during the Forecast.

“It’s good to know that housing appreciation in California is now in line with the rest of the country,” he says.  “Whereas in previous years it was 6-7 percent appreciation, now it’s a lot lower at 3 percent.  I’d like to buy a house in the next 10 years, so this is something I keep an eye on.”

Having such information also helps Realtors like Carrie English of Caliber Real Estate Group.  She attended the December Forecast for the first time.

“The Forecast was very enlightening regarding the state of the economy and the current continued recovery, as well as the housing industry,” says English.  “Having such information helps me educate my clients who are selling, about the importance of not overpricing homes.  It was also encouraging to hear that there won’t be a recession in 2019.  I haven’t seen any indicators of that occurring in the housing market.”

Even when the economy does eventually dip, it’s good to know that Chapman University’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research, home of the Forecast, will continue to apprise the nation of economic trends in an accurate and easily understandable format.

“At the Forecast, Dr. Doti did a great job of explaining the state of the economy and all of the factors that have led to where we are today,” says Davis, who attended in December for the first time.  “He did a better job than most teachers I’ve had.  I’d definitely recommend attending a Forecast if you have an interest in economics.”

Mark your calendars for the 2019 Chapman University Economic Forecast Update on Wednesday, June 19.  The update will be held at the Musco Center for the Arts at the Orange campus.  For information and tickets, visit: www.chapma.nu/2VQIbgbZ.

Select to view 2019 Chapman Economic Forecast initial article.


Published in the May / Jun 19 edition of the Old Towne Orange Plaza Review

Article Written by Julie Bawden-Davis, photos provided by John Saade

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